Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.368599 21.039039 22.880519 25.079707 27.659893 30.623837 34.335544
2024-12-22 16.710816 18.878685 21.440751 24.756632 29.037904 34.540796 42.451324
2024-12-29 14.941013 17.361728 20.373215 24.522693 30.324433 38.575990 52.191857
2025-01-05 13.674273 16.236637 19.554853 24.367007 31.573775 42.831267 64.234380
2025-01-12 12.570694 15.163208 18.621794 23.838203 32.092902 46.062440 76.423795
2025-01-19 12.130785 14.900549 18.726363 24.776721 35.041415 54.398288 106.001689
2025-01-26 11.445805 14.224314 18.150248 24.559791 35.977611 59.329497 133.540189
2025-02-02 10.937338 13.744240 17.797715 24.626088 37.410242 65.957035 178.906394
2025-02-09 10.528441 13.368157 17.554111 24.821762 39.120897 74.179930 257.582831
2025-02-16 10.137570 12.985393 17.257715 24.873528 40.545026 82.593338 390.602235
2025-02-23 9.720369 12.533344 16.809848 24.589367 41.176337 89.179857 595.836209
2025-03-02 9.403130 12.210324 16.539723 24.592675 42.463265 99.075812 1213.647649
2025-03-09 9.061598 11.835192 16.163690 24.366319 43.205550 108.027631 3661.457424
2025-03-16 8.744273 11.480338 15.796163 24.115394 43.847880 117.554279 NaN
2025-03-23 8.462294 11.165528 15.473586 23.916659 44.594995 128.835925 NaN
2025-03-30 8.212926 10.888982 15.196700 23.778517 45.488551 142.605780 NaN
2025-04-06 7.923698 10.535705 14.765536 23.275694 45.236391 149.617225 NaN
2025-04-13 7.872607 10.559104 14.989506 24.179024 49.440402 197.980224 NaN
2025-04-20 7.660037 10.311011 14.716126 23.971820 50.128109 220.853937 NaN
2025-04-27 7.499710 10.140850 14.571781 24.035917 51.761591 261.812157 NaN
2025-05-04 7.365970 10.008103 14.486402 24.223943 53.920078 325.415315 NaN
2025-05-11 7.221878 9.851852 14.348054 24.273717 55.622464 401.453023 NaN
2025-05-18 7.045275 9.634577 14.084659 24.000998 56.020610 459.662595 NaN